An enveloping gloom
CHINA’S Olympic pageantry is under way. Dozens of dignitaries, presidents and prime ministers have gathered in Beijing for an extravaganza that many Chinese see as a celebration of their nation’s rise. But for all their professed joy at the spectacle, China’s own leaders are fretful.
中国的奥运盛事正如火如荼的进行。数位名人、国家要人都集聚北京参加在许多中国人看来这场庆祝中国崛起的盛事。中国领导人自然是喜形于色，但也不免烦燥不安。
The massive security around Beijing and the authorities’ strenuous efforts to keep potential protesters at bay is evidence of nervousness. These measures have gone beyond what might be expected for an event attended by so many bigwigs. In the past few months, instability has roiled Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas. Anti-Chinese resentment has been simmering in neighbouring Xinjiang too. Though sparsely populated, these regions make up around 40% of China’s land mass.
北京戒备森严，政府也下大力气防止可能发生的抗议，这都将中国的紧张表露无遗。对于由许多要人出席的运动会而言，这些措施已经超过了范围。在过去的几个月里，西藏和藏人居住区不稳定。邻省新疆也有反华情绪。尽管这些地区人口少，但整体面积占国土面积的的40%。
On August 4th, four days before the start of the games, 16 policemen were killed in Kashgar in Xinjiang by two men suspected by the authorities of being Muslim separatists. It was one of the bloodiest attacks blamed on terrorists in recent years in China. Their weapons were crude: a lorry used to slam into the jogging officers, machetes and home-made explosives. Kashgar’s party chief, Shi Dagang, said terrorists were “trying to turn 2008 into a year of mourning and a year of terror”.
8月4日，也就是奥运会开幕前4天，在新疆喀什有两名嫌疑穆斯林分裂分子杀害了16名警察。这是近几年来在中国恐怖分子发起的最为血腥的袭击。他们所用了用来冲撞训练部队的卡车、砍刀和自制炸药等残忍手段。喀什的党委书记说恐怖分子妄想“将2008年变成哀悼和恐怖的一年。”
The threat of violence is probably being overstated by the authorities to justify suppressing any kind of peaceful protest during the games. Given the level of security in Beijing, few expect more than occasional small incidents. These are most likely to involve foreign supporters of various human-rights causes in China, particularly those relating to Tibetans, Xinjiang’s Uighurs and religion. On August 6th two Americans and two British citizens raised banners calling for a “free Tibet” on poles close to the main stadium. They were ordered out of the country.
或许中共政府对暴力的威胁有点夸大其词，以便为镇压一切奥运期间的和平抗议正名。北京重兵把守，因此最多只会发生小动乱，很可能由那些中国人权事业的外国反对者，尤其是与西藏人、新疆维吾尔人和新疆地区有关的人所为。8月6日两名美国人和两名英国公民在主体育场附近的杆子上拉起横幅，叫嚣“解放西藏”。事后，他们被勒令回国。
The state of the economy, though not yet as clear a challenge as that posed by restless minorities, is worrying China’s leaders too. They have long been trying to prevent it from growing too fast, but now they fear that growth is slowing and may slow further. National income grew by 10.1% in the year to the second quarter, compared with 10.6% in the year to the first quarter and 11.2% to the last quarter of 2007 (see chart).
尽管经济所带来的挑战不及不安分的少数民族那么明显，但也同样让中国领导人忧心忡忡。他们一直以来都在防止经济过热，但担心增速减缓，而且可能还会更慢。到第二季度，中国国民收入增长10.1%，到第一季度是10.6%，2007年最后一个季度是11.2%。
Exporters are anxious. Much of the fall results from a big decline in net exports. Reasons for this include an appreciating yuan, cuts in export-tax rebates and recession or slowdown in China’s main export markets. Manufacturers of low value-added export goods such as clothes and textiles, which employ millions of workers, are among the hardest hit. The state-controlled media have reported many closures of small and medium-sized businesses in coastal areas. Chinese leaders, previously more eager to nurture high-tech industries, toured textile factories last month in a show of political support.
出口商焦虑不安。大部分的出口下降都是因为净出口的大幅下降。原因在于：人民币升值、出口退税减少和中国主要出口市场的萧条或是增长减缓。其中受影响最大的就是服装和纺织品等低附加值产品的制造商，他们雇佣了多达几百亿工人。国家控制的媒体已经报道了很多沿海城市中小企业倒闭。中国领导人，此前更急于培育高新产业，上个月也视察了纺织加工厂，以显示政治支持。
Later in July, a meeting of the ruling Politburo signalled a policy shift. The formerly oft-repeated injunction to prevent overheating was dropped. Instead the leadership decided to focus on maintaining “steady and fast” economic growth, though it said it would continue its efforts to combat inflation.
7月下旬，执政的政治局召开会议，发出政策转变的信号，放弃了之前所反复强调的防止经济过热的政策，而是更加注重“又快又稳”的增长，但同时将继续控制通货膨胀。
Since the meeting there have been moves to placate exporters, such as easing controls on lending to small and medium businesses. Officials are relieved that the rise in the consumer-price index has slowed from a 12-year high of 8.7% in February to 7.1% in June, thanks partly to a decline in meat prices. But growth-boosting measures risk fuelling inflation. Wholesale prices are rising ominously fast, and big increases in state-controlled fuel prices have raised fears of worse to come.
这次会议采取了一些举措来安抚出口商，如缓解对中小企业借贷的控制。由于猪肉价格有所回落， 消费者指数增幅从2月的全年最高8.7%下降到6月的7.1%，这让中国领导人松了口气。但是刺激增长的措施可能会加剧通货膨胀。零售价格增长极快，国家控制的燃油价格的大幅增长，这让人们担心情况可能会越来越糟。
Continued high growth would be good news for the classes—a constituency regarded by the party as vital to its grip on power. The past few months have been testing times for them. Contrary to widely held expectations that the stockmarket would keep on booming until the games, valuations have plummeted since their peak last October. A side-effect of this has been the shift of some small investors’ money into other risky ventures. In early July the founder of a company involved in commodities-futures trading allegedly fled to America with millions of dollars of customers’ money. Angry investors gathered at its headquarters in Beijing to the consternation of officials anxious to ensure a trouble-free Olympics.
持续高增长对于中产阶级而言可能是个好消息，中共政府将中产阶级看作是掌权的至关重要的因素。过去的几个月对他们来讲是一个试验期。过去他们普遍认为股市在奥运期间也会一直红火，但事与愿违，市值在去年10月达到高峰后就一落千丈。这产生的负作用就是一些小的投资者将资金转用于风险投资。7月初，有报道称，一家进行商品期货交易的公司创始人携消费者的数百万美元潜逃到美国。愤怒的投资者在北京总部集会，这使渴望奥运会平安无事的中国官员惊惶失措。
There are growing worries too in some parts of China about the once seemingly irrepressible property market. Officials from the National Bureau of Statistics quoted by the state-controlled media this week said huge profits reaped by many in this sector over the past decade had come to an end. In Beijing residential apartments sales (measured by floor space) fell almost 50% in the first half of the year compared with the same period a year ago.
中国的一些部门对于曾经看起来无法控制的房地产市场也越来越担心。本周，媒体援引国家统计局官员的话称，过去十年在房地产市场赚得瓢满钵满，但这种情况寿终就寝了。在北京，今年上半年的居民房(以占地面积计算)比去年同期下降将近50%。
Chinese leaders can console themselves with the thought that the country as a whole is unlikely to suffer the problem endured by some previous Olympic hosts: a post-games downturn brought on by a sudden drop in investment and consumption. Beijing’s economy accounts for less than 5% of China’s GDP. But President Hu Jintao, at a rare press conference a week before the games, spoke of “greater challenges and problems” confronting China’s economy as a result of global uncertainty. It has already begun to feel them.
中国领导人或许可以自我安慰，认为中国从整体而言不会面临前奥运会主办国的问题：奥运过后，投资和消费嘎然而止导致经济下滑。北京市的GDP还不到全国的5%。尽管如此，胡绵涛在奥运会召开前一周不同寻常的召开了一次记者招待会。会中他称全球的不确定性使中国经济面临“更大的挑战和更多的问题”。中国已经开始有所体会了。
